Cat. I This is an introductory course in probabilistic models and decision-making under risk, with applications to engineering and management decision making. The course first covers quantitative methods for assessing and evaluating risks and how they are used in decision making. Decision making under risk is examined across a wide set of management and engineering problems. The course then introduces a set of probabilistic models commonly used in decision making and operations improvement; specifically, emphasis is placed on Markov chains, Poisson processes, and queuing theory, and their applications in manufacturing and service systems are illustrated. Recommended background: knowledge of calculus and introductory probability and statistics.